TACTICAL CRIME ANALYSIS PESEARCH AND LNVESTIHOTION【2025|PDF下载-Epub版本|mobi电子书|kindle百度云盘下载】

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SECTION Ⅰ3

1 Introduction of Crime Analysis3

Introduction3

Conclusion7

2 Understanding Criminal Behavior9

Introduction9

Rational Choice9

Research Findings11

Routine Activities Theory13

Research Findings15

Crime Pattern Theory16

Research Findings18

Opportunity Makes the Thief19

Conclusion23

3 Behavioral Geography25

Introduction to Behavioral Geography25

Spatial Behavior27

Mental Maps and Awareness Space27

Research on Mental Maps and Awareness Space29

Journey-to-Crime32

Journey-to-Crime Research33

Thinking Criminal35

4 Exploring Crime Types45

Introduction45

Homicide45

Robbery47

Burglary49

Auto Theft51

Sexual Assault54

Conclusion55

5 Linking Crime57

Introduction57

Linkage Blindness58

Jane Smith58

Sheriff Joe59

Who, What, Where, When, How and Why60

The Dresser Drawers Theory60

The Investigative Mindset: Fact and Inference62

Process Models: The IZE Method64

Process Models: Inductive Versus Deductive68

Process Models: Quantitative Identification70

Data Mining71

Data Mining: Regular Expressions72

Data Mining: Concepts74

Conclusion75

6 Temporal Analysis77

Introduction77

Definitions77

Basic Assumptions78

Primary Time of Occurrence79

Multiple Times of Occurrence79

Aoristic Analysis80

Temporal Analysis Units81

T Coordinates82

Temporal Study Area (Range)82

Temporal Distribution83

Tempo86

Velocity87

Temporal Cycles87

Time Series Analysis88

7 Geographic Profiling91

Introduction91

Background of Geographic Profiling91

Geographic Profiling Schools of Thought92

Criminal Geographic Targeting (CGT)93

Personalities and History93

Application93

Investigative Psychology (I-?)95

Personalities and History95

Application96

CrimeStat97

Personalities and History97

Application97

Empirically Calibrated Decay Functions100

Wedge Theory100

Personalities and History101

Application101

Geoforensic Analysis101

Personalities and History101

Application102

Philosophical Foundations102

Individual Methods103

Research on the Accuracy of Geographic Profiling Systems105

Glossary of Terms107

8 Forecasting and Prediction109

Overview109

Why Forecasts Work110

Why Forecasts Don't Work110

The Utility of Forecasts111

Temporal Forecasting111

Spatial Forecasting112

Why Predictions Work112

Decision Models113

Why Predictions Don't Work117

Methods120

Percent Change121

Correlation123

Autocorrelation123

Linear Trend Estimation (Regression)125

9 Intervention127

Introduction127

Objectives128

Intervention Strategies132

Opportunity Cost135

Tactics135

The Action Plan—A Combined Approach136

SECTION Ⅱ136

10 Getting Started141

Goals of This Section:141

Introduction141

Accessing the Textbook Web page141

Online Resources141

Obtaining the Software142

Open and Evaluate Data using ATAC142

Lesson 1: Open the Sample Database in ATAC142

Practice on Your Own: Evaluate Crime Data Using ATAC142

ATAC and Microsoft Access143

Lesson 2: Open a Microsoft Access Database in ATAC143

Practice on Your Own: Evaluate Call for Service Data144

ATAC and Microsoft Excel144

Lesson 3: Open a Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet in ATAC145

Lesson 4: Open the Sample Database in Excel145

Practice on Your Own: Evaluate Data Using Microsoft Excel145

Lesson 5: Import Data from Access into Excel145

Practice On Your Own: Import Data into Excel147

Review Exercise: Open Other Data147

Review Questions147

11 Identify Patterns Using the IZE Method (Process Models)149

Goals of This Section:149

Introduction149

Layouts in ATAC150

Lesson 6: Organizing a Layout Using ATAC150

Lesson 7: Saving a Layout in ATAC151

Layouts in Excel152

Lesson 8: Organizing a Layout Using Excel152

Practice On Your Own: Create a Robbery Layout Using Microsoft Excel152

Sorting Data153

Lesson 9: Organizing Data by Sorting in ATAC153

Lesson 10: Organizing Data by Sorting in Excel154

Review Exercise: Create Sorts for Three Crime Types154

Review Questions154

12 Minimize and Maximize—IZE method155

Goals of This Section:155

Introduction155

Structured Query Language155

Lesson 11: Minimize Using the Visual Query Module in ATAC156

Lesson 12: Minimize Using the Filter Bar in ATAC157

Lesson 13: Minimize Using the Filter Bar in Excel158

Practice on Your Own: Minimize Data Using Excel159

Practice on Your Own: Find the Twins159

Practice on Your Own: Identify a Crime Series160

Regular Expressions160

Lesson 14: Create and Run a Regular Expression160

Lesson 15: Create and Run a Proximity Search RegularExpression161

Lesson 16: Create a Concept162

Lesson 17: Create and Run a Proximity Search Concept163

Review Exercise: Using RegEx to Perform the Inductive Method164

Review Questions165

13 The Behavioral Dimension: Describing the Problem167

Goals of This Section:167

Introduction167

Archetypes168

Lesson 18: Creating an Archetype from ATAC168

Movement Logs168

Lesson 19: Develop a Movement Log169

Review Exercise: Creating an Archetype170

Review Questions170

14 The Temporal Dimension171

Goals of This Section:171

Introduction171

Activity Schedules172

Lesson 20: Creating an Activity Schedule172

Lesson 21: Create a Temporal Topology Using Excel173

Lesson 22: Create a Temporal Topology Using ATAC174

Practice On Your Own: Evaluate Time of Day and Day of Week for Various Crimes175

Dynamic Temporal Analysis177

Temporal Distribution177

Tempo178

Lesson 23: Create a Tempogram in ATAC178

Lesson 24: Create a Tempogram in Excel179

Lesson 25: Create a Mean Interval Forecast with Excel180

Practice on Your Own: Calculate Mean Interval for Various Other Crimes181

Variograms181

Lesson 26: Create a Variogram Using Excel181

Lesson 27: Create a Variogram Using ATAC182

Practice on Your Own: Calculate Lag Variograms against Various Other Crimes183

Lesson 28: Study of Correlation Using Excel184

Lesson 29: Study of Correlation Using ATAC186

Review Exercise: Evaluate Other Crime Series Using Correlation187

Review Questions188

15 The Spatial Dimension189

Goals of This Section:189

Introduction189

Preparing for Spatial Analysis190

Lesson 30: Launching ArcGIS and Exploring the Interface190

Lesson 31: Add the Gotham City Crime Series Using ArcGIS191

ArcGIS and the Spatial Analyst Extension191

Lesson 32: Loading Spatial Analyst192

ArcGIS and SPACE (Spatial Predictive Analysis of Crime Extension)192

Lesson 33: Loading the SPACE Tools in ArcGIS193

Preparing for Spatial Analysis Using Google Earth193

Lesson 34: Load Points in Google Earth193

Lesson 35: Export to Google Earth194

Preparing for Spatial Analysis Using ATAC194

Lesson 36: Loading Points in ATAC195

Point Distributions196

Frame of Reference196

Lesson 37: Frame of Reference196

Identify Point Distribution196

Mean Nearest Neighbor198

Lesson 38: Calculating Nearest Neighbor Statistics198

Density Fields198

Lesson 39: Density Fields Using ArcGIS199

Lesson 40: Calculating Density Analysis in ATAC200

Minimum Convex Polygon201

Lesson 41: Minimum Convex Polygon202

Standard Deviation Ellipse202

Lesson 42: Standard Deviation Ellipse202

Spider Analysis202

Lesson 43: Spider Analysis203

Lesson 44: Establishing Offender Activity Space Using Spider Lines and Density Fields205

Space-Time Analysis206

Sequence Lines206

Lesson 45: Sequence Lines208

Geographic Profiling208

Lesson 46: Calculate the Great Circle against the Beltway Sniper Series208

Practice On Your Own: Are you a Marauder or Commuter?209

Lesson 47: Create a Newton-Swoope Geoforensic Profile of the Beltway Sniper Series210

Review Exercise: Using the Great Circle and Geographic Profiling211

Review Questions212

Bibliography213

Index219